Republican Hager Comfortably Leads Democrat Brown

Incumbent Has Over 15% Advantage in District in which Walter Dalton holds lead over Pat McCrory

In the most recent Strategic Insights Survey of 300 general election voters in State House District 112, first term incumbent Republican Mike Hager comfortably leads Democratic opponent Mark Brown 47.0% to 32.3%, with 20.7% undecided.

Republicans strongly back their nominee Hager, with 76% of Republicans backing Hager, while only 48.0% Democrats support Brown.  The poll reveals that Hager also has crucial support from Democrats, with 28.3% of Democrats behind Republican Hager versus only 7.3% of Republicans supporting Brown.

Unaffiliated voters may make this a closer race, with 37.7% support for Brown compared to 41.6% supporting Hager.  20.8% of unaffiliated voters remain undecided.

Overall, Hager has a 25% favorability rating and an unfavorability rating of 16%.  44.3% of voters have heard of Hager but have no opinion of him, while only 14.7% of voters have never heard of him.  Brown’s numbers are mixed, with 11.7% favorable and 10% unfavorable.  Over half of the district (50.7%) has heard of Mark Brown but have no opinion of him while 27.7% have never heard of him.

In the presidential race, this district clearly favors Mitt Romney over President Obama, 55.7% to 37.7%. Libertarian Gary Johnson is receiving 1.7% with only 5.0% of voters undecided.  Romney should win this district comfortably and help other Republicans on the ticket.

This district contains part of Walter Dalton’s former senate district and he is currently leading Pat McCrory 48.7% to 40.7%, with 2.7% of voters backing Libertarian candidate Barbara Howe and 8.0% still undecided.  Among Democrats, Walter Dalton is still leading McCrory, by a margin of 71.7% to 18.9%.   However, the Lt. Governor is only receiving 17.7% of the Republican vote to 69.8% for McCrory.  This is the best performance for Walter Dalton among Republicans that our polling has revealed to date in any state legislative district.  Unaffiliated voters break for Dalton as well, with 49.4% supporting Dalton to 40.3% for McCrory and 2.6% for Howe.  7.8% remain undecided.

Only 28.7% of voters in this district believe the economy will improve, 35.3% say it will get worse and 31.7% believe the economy will stay the same.

For a complete set of the survey crosstabs and topline summary, click on the links at the top of the page.

About the Strategic Insights Survey

The Strategic Insights Survey is a survey of 300 North Carolina voters living in the 3rd NC House District with a margin of error of +/- 5.77%.  The survey is the project of Strategic Partners Solutions and is conducted by Paul Shumaker and Dee Stewart, two well-know Republican consultants to numerous state and federal candidates. This survey was conducted on September 11, 2012 through an automated phone system.  Phone surveys are a snapshot of voters’ opinions and are subject to other factors that may influence the margin of error not present in personal interviews surveys.  However, they are an effective measure of public opinion and provide valuable insight into the opinions of all voters.

The Strategic Insights Survey is designed to provide insight into the opinions of voters on federal, state and local issues facing North Carolina.  The surveys are conducted by an automated phone system using a random sample generated by a file of North Carolina voters.   The survey is a snapshot of voters’ opinion on the key issues of the day.  It is important to remember that public opinion is fluid and is subject to change over time.  Polls are not predictors of the future.  They are a reflection of opinion based upon the current set of information available in the public arena at a given point in time.