Close Rematch in Senate District 50

Republican Incumbent Jim Davis Locked In Tight Race with Democratic challenger John Snow

RALEIGH – In the most recent Strategic Insights Survey of 400 general election voters in State Senate District 50, Republican Jim Davis holds a 1% lead, 46.5% to 45.5% with only 8% undecided.  Given the margin of error+/-5%, this race is too close to call.  However, a closer look at the race reveals momentum lies with the Republicans in this district, where more than half the voters 52% believe North Carolina is heading in the wrong direction.

Republicans support Davis 81.9% to 14.2% for Snow while Democratic support for Snow 74.2% to 17.2% for Davis.  In addition, Davis has a 10% advantage with unaffiliated voters 49.1% to 39.1% for Snow.  8.6% of Democrats, 3.9% of Republicans, and 11.8% unaffiliated voters remain undecided.

One key for this race may lie in the generic ballot.  In the generic ballot test, 47.5% intend to support the Republican candidate compared to only 41.8% of voters favor the Democratic candidate.  10.8% are undecided.

On the presidential ballot, Mitt Romney leads 53% to 40.5% for President Obama with Libertarian Gary Johnson pulling 3.8%. A mere 2.8% remain undecided.  Romney’s numbers are solid in the district with 89% of Republicans supporting him, 23.3% of Democratic support and an impressive 55% of unaffiliated voters.  By contrast, President Obama is pulling only 73% of Democratic support, 5.5% of Republicans and just 32.7% of unaffiliated voters.

In the governor’s race, Pat McCrory leads Democrat Walter Dalton 50.3% to 39% with Libertarian Barbara Howe pulling 4.3%. 6.5% remain undecided.  McCrory continues to have strong support even across party lines with 85.8% of Republicans, 23.3% Democratic and almost half, 49.1% of unaffiliated voters backing McCrory.

36.8% of voters believe the economy will improve, 30% believe it will get worse and 27% said the economy would stay the same.

For a complete set of the survey crosstabs and topline summary, please click on the links at the top of the page.

About the Strategic Insights Survey

The Strategic Insights Survey is a survey of 400 North Carolina voters living in the NC Senate District 50 with a margin of error of +/- 5%.  The survey is the project of Strategic Partners Solutions and is conducted by Paul Shumaker and Dee Stewart, two well-known Republican consultants to numerous state and federal candidates. This survey was conducted on October 17, 2012 through an automated phone system.  Phone surveys are a snapshot of voters’ opinions and are subject to other factors that may influence the margin of error not present in personal interviews surveys.  However, they are an effective measure of public opinion and provide valuable insight into the opinions of all voters.

The Strategic Insights Survey is designed to provide insight into the opinions of voters on federal, state and local issues facing North Carolina.  The surveys are conducted by an automated phone system using a random sample generated by a file of North Carolina voters.   The survey is a snapshot of voters’ opinion on the key issues of the day.  It is important to remember that public opinion is fluid and is subject to change over time.  Polls are not predictors of the future.  They are a reflection of opinion based upon the current set of information available in the public arena at a given point in time.