Meredith Holds Substantial Lead Over Tatum in NC S-19 Contest

Freshman Senator leads Democratic challenger by 12 points, benefiting from a united Republican and Conservative voting block of voters.

With the 2012 battle underway for North Carolina legislative races, Strategic Partners Solutions will be releasing a series of surveys in state legislative races to provide additional insight for the business interests surrounding the General Assembly. The first in our series of Strategic Insights Surveys features the contest between Freshman Republican Senator Wesley Meredith and Democratic challenger George Tatum.

The survey of 400 general election voters taken on August 5, 2012 revealed Wesley Meredith with a nearly 12 point lead over George Tatum, 47.8% to 36%. The Republican vote breaks 85.1% for Meredith to just 6.6% for Tatum. Democratic voters were less united with 65.1% breaking for Tatum and 17.4% to Meredith. The importance of winning Unaffiliated voters is critical in most competitive legislative districts. In this contest, Meredith is leading by more than 20 points with an impressive 54.2% of the vote compared to just 22.4% for Tatum.

Underscoring the strength of Meredith is a strongly united Republican vote for both Mitt Romney and Pat McCrory.

In the Presidential contest, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama 51.8% to 41.3%. The Romney vote is solid among Republicans at 90.1% to 2.5 % for President Obama. Unaffiliated voters are breaking for Romney, 57.9% to 31.8% and Romney is pulling nearly 21% of the Democratic vote with that block of voters breaking 74.4% for President Obama to 20.9% for Romney.

In the gubernatorial contest, Republican Pat McCrory is holding a lead over Lt. Governor Walter Dalton, 48.3% to 34.5%. McCrory’s numbers track very closely to Romney with Republicans breaking 86% for McCrory and 3.3% for Dalton. Nearly one out of five Democrats are indicating they would vote for McCrory with the Republican nominee pulling 19.8% of the Democratic vote to just 64.5% for Dalton. Also benefiting McCrory is his strength with Unaffiliated voters, winning that subset at 51.4% to just 21.5% for Dalton.

Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voting blocks, indicating that neither side will have an issue in turning out their voters on Election Day.

Nearly half the voters in the district view themselves as Conservatives 48.8%, to 15.3% who view themselves as liberals and 36% who view themselves as moderates.

The underperformance of all Democratic candidates within their own Party indicates a strong influence of conservative-based Democratic voters within this state legislative district.

Nearly half of the voters thought the state is headed in the wrong direction 47.5% wrong direction to 28% right direction. In addition, voters are not optimistic about the economy improving with 28.5% saying it would get worse, 41.8% said it would stay the same while only 29.8% said it would improve.

For a complete set of the survey crosstabs and topline summary, click on the following link: www. stratpart.com .

About the Strategic Insights Survey

The Strategic Insights Survey is a survey of 400 North Carolina voters living in the 19th NC Senate District with a margin of error of +/- 5.0%. The survey is the project of Strategic Partners Solutions and is conducted by Paul Shumaker and Dee Stewart, two well-known Republican consultants to numerous state and federal candidates. This survey was conducted on August 5, 2012 through an automated phone system. Phone surveys are a snapshot of voters’ opinions and are subject to other factors that may influence the margin of error not present in personal interviews surveys. However, they are an effective measure of public opinion and provide valuable insight into the opinions of all voters.

The Strategic Insights Survey is designed to provide insight into the opinions of voters on federal, state and local issues facing North Carolina. The surveys are conducted by an automated phone system using a random sample generated by a file of North Carolina voters. The survey is a snapshot of voters’ opinion on the key issues of the day. It is important to remember that public opinion is fluid and is subject to change over time. Polls are not predictors of the future. They are a reflection of opinion based upon the current set of information available in the public arena at a given point in time.