Gene McLaurin Leads GOP Rival Gene McIntyre in NCS-25 Contest

Contest has the makings of a very competitive end for both candidates. 

In the most recent Strategic Insights Survey, the poll of 400 general elections voters showed Democratic candidate Gene McLaurin leading Republican Gene McIntyre 46.5% to 38.3%.  The vote for both candidates falls along the Party line with McLaurin winning Democrats 77.1% to 13.2% for McIntyre and McIntyre winning Republicans 74.8% to McLaurin’s 11.3%.   Unaffiliated voters were breaking for McIntyre 50.0% to 18.8% for McLaurin, a break that very much reflects the generic ballot as well.   Unaffiliated voters on the generic legislative ballot test were 51.3% Republican to 21.3% Democratic.

Both candidates were relatively well known with only 18.8% saying they had never heard of Gene McLaurin and 20.3% saying they had never heard of Gene McIntyre.  However, the candidates are not well defined at this point in time in the race.

McLaurin’s image numbers were 22.8% favorable to 17.5% unfavorable and 41.0% saying they had heard of him but had no opinion.  18.5% of voters said they had a favorable opinion of Gene McIntrye while 17.5% said they had an unfavorable opinion of him and 43.8% saying they had heard of him but had no opinion.

Both candidates lack definition with the critical undecided vote in this contest.  The undecided voters are a very interesting group of voters.  This group of voters break 37.7% Democrat to 27.9% Republican on the generic ballot test; 42.6% for Romney to 41.0% for Obama and then 49.2% for McCrory to just 9.8% for Dalton.   Their ballot preference at the top of the ticket clearly demonstrates that this group of voters is up for grabs.

Furthermore, of the vote for McLaurin, 11.8% of his voters stated a preference for a Republican candidate on the generic ballot test to just 3.3% of McIntyre’s voters who states a preference for a Democratic candidate.   If McCrory continues to build strength at the top of the ticket, the race will only get closer as Election Day approaches.

The Presidential race is a virtual tie with President Obama receiving 47.5% of the vote to 48.3% for Mitt Romney with only 4.3% were undecided.

Pat McCrory leads Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 50.5% to 36.3% with Libertarian Barbara Howe pulling 4.5% of the vote.  The Howe vote clearly takes away from the McCrory margin but the Republican is well positioned to carry this district.

40.0% of the voters in the district view themselves as Conservatives to 21.3% who view themselves as liberals and 29.5% view themselves as moderates.

Nearly half of the voters think the state is headed in the wrong direction 47.5% wrong direction to 37.5% right direction.  Voters were split on the economy with 34.8% saying it would improve this year, 31.3% saying it would get worse and 28.8% saying it would stay about the same.

For a complete set of the survey crosstabs and topline summary, click on the following link: www. stratpart.com.

About the Strategic Insights Survey

The Strategic Insights Survey is a survey of 400 North Carolina voters living in the 25th NC Senate District with a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.  The survey is the project of Strategic Partners Solutions and is conducted by Paul Shumaker and Dee Stewart, two well-know Republican consultants to numerous state and federal candidates. This survey was conducted on September 11-12, 2012 through an automated phone system.  Phone surveys are a snapshot of voters’ opinions and are subject to other factors that may influence the margin of error not present in personal interviews surveys.  However, they are an effective measure of public opinion and provide valuable insight into the opinions of all voters.

The Strategic Insights Survey is designed to provide insight into the opinions of voters on federal, state and local issues facing North Carolina.  The surveys are conducted by an automated phone system using a random sample generated by a file of North Carolina voters.   The survey is a snapshot of voters’ opinion on the key issues of the day.  It is important to remember that public opinion is fluid and is subject to change over time.  Polls are not predictors of the future.  They are a reflection of opinion based upon the current set of information available in the public arena at a given point in time.