Tom Murry tracking ahead of Jim Messina in NC House 41 Contest

Freshman Republican is holding a 10-point lead over Democratic challenger.

In the most recent Strategic Insights Survey of  300 general elections voters in State House – 41, incumbent Republican Tom Murry leads Democratic challenger Jim Messina 43.0% to 33.3%.   This race is one that will most certainly be watched closely by all political observers inside the beltline given the suburban location and a voting electorate dominated by Unaffiliated voters.

The main difference in the ballot test lies within Murry’s solid vote with Republican voters (84.3% to Messina’s 6.9%) and a gender advantage with female voters, 45.5% for Murry to 32.7% for Messina.   Jim Messina has yet to solidify his vote within his Democratic base leading Murry 66.3% to 6.7%.

With Unaffiliated voters representing the largest voting block in the district, Murry posted a 2.7% point advantage, 33.9% to 31.2% for Messina, making this virtually a tie, given the margin of error among this group of voters.

Undecided voters in the State House contest were breaking 40.8% for McCrory, 21.1% for Dalton and 14.1% for Libertarian Barbara Howe.  However, on the Presidential ballot the same group of voters were 42.3% for President Obama, 31.0% for Mitt Romney and 26.8% undecided; a clear indication that the undecided voter is up for grabs by both campaigns.

However, Murry will have help at the top of the ticket along with a partisan benefit so the edge should go to him if he can continue to build his image with all voters.

The generic ballot test question on the state legislature was a 9 % point advantage for Republicans with 47.0% of voters stating their preference for a Republican to 38.0% preferring a Democratic candidate.  Democrats were less united at 76.4% stating their Party’s preference to 15.7% choosing a Republican.  87.3% of Republicans pick their Party’s brand to just 5.9% who prefer a Democrat.  Unaffiliateds were basically evenly split with 36.7% preferring a Democratic candidate to 34.9% stating the Republican preference.

On the Presidential ballot, Mitt Romney leads President Obama 50.3% to 42.0% with neither candidate demonstrating a significant advantage to decisively win the undecided vote.

Pat McCrory leads Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 51.7% to 34.7% with Libertarian Barbara Howe pulling 6.7% of the vote.  All candidates are virtually unknown by the undecided voters so it is difficult to gauge how they may break on Election Day.  One can just as easily surmise that this group of voters may decide not to participate in the November elections.

Half of the voters think the state is headed in the wrong direction 50.0% wrong direction to 31.0% right direction.   Republican were 72.5% wrong direction, 11.8% right direction while Democrats were 50.6% right direction to 30.3% wrong direction.  Unaffiliated voters were 45.0% wrong direction to 33.0% right direction.

Only 33.3% of voters said the economy would improve this year while 18.7% said it would get worse and 38.3% said it would stay about the same.

For a complete set of the survey crosstabs and topline summary, click on the links at the top of the page.

About the Strategic Insights Survey

The Strategic Insights Survey is a survey of 300 North Carolina voters living in the 41st NC House District with a margin of error of +/- 5.77%.  The survey is the project of Strategic Partners Solutions and is conducted by Paul Shumaker and Dee Stewart, two well-know Republican consultants to numerous state and federal candidates. This survey was conducted on September 11, 2012 through an automated phone system.  Phone surveys are a snapshot of voters’ opinions and are subject to other factors that may influence the margin of error not present in personal interviews surveys.  However, they are an effective measure of public opinion and provide valuable insight into the opinions of all voters.

The Strategic Insights Survey is designed to provide insight into the opinions of voters on federal, state and local issues facing North Carolina.  The surveys are conducted by an automated phone system using a random sample generated by a file of North Carolina voters.   The survey is a snapshot of voters’ opinion on the key issues of the day.  It is important to remember that public opinion is fluid and is subject to change over time.  Polls are not predictors of the future.  They are a reflection of opinion based upon the current set of information available in the public arena at a given point in time.