Chris Malone leads in NCH-35 Open Seat Contest

Republican Malone favored over Democratic challenger Lori Millberg 45.7% to 35.3%.

A Strategic Insights Survey shows Republican candidate Chris Malone with a 10.4% ballot advantage over Lori Millberg with 19% of the vote still undecided.

The crosstabs on the ballot test reveal an uphill climb for Millberg.  Democrats are breaking 67% for Millberg to 19.6% for Malone with 13.4% being undecided.  Republicans are voting 74.3% for Malone to just 5.7% for Millberg with 20% saying they are undecided.   Unaffiliated voters are breaking for Malone 44.6% to 30.1% for Millberg with 25.3% still undecided.

While both candidates are relatively unknown by undecided voters, this group of voters are supporting Pat McCrory for Governor 43.9% to 21.1% for Walter Dalton and 12.3% for Libertarian Barbara Howe.  In addition, most favor a Republican candidate on the generic ballot test giving a 5.2% advantage to a Republican candidate over a Democratic candidate 33.3% to 28.1%.   Clearly, Malone stands to at least split the undecided vote with Millberg, easily putting him above 50% of the vote on Election Day.

On the Presidential Ballot, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama 50% to 44% with Libertarian Gary Johnson pulling 2.7% of the vote.  Only 3.3% remain undecided.  Democrats split 79.5% for Obama to 16.1% for Romney, Republican support stands at 81% for Romney, 11.4 % for Obama and 4.8% for Johnson.  Unaffiliated voters give the nod to Romney with a solid 56.6% while Obama receives a weak 37.3%.  2.4% go for Johnson.

Pat McCrory continues his steady march to becoming North Carolina’s first Republican Governor elected in 24 years leading Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 52.7% to 36%.  Libertarian Barbara Howe pulls 4% of the vote with 7.3% still undecided.  Democratic voters favor Dalton just 66.1% to 23.2% for McCrory while Republican voters favor McCrory 82.9% to just 5.7% for Dalton.  Unaffiliated voters favor McCrory by 20.5% with 54.2% going to McCrory to 33.7% going to Dalton.

The generic ballot test question on the state legislature was a 10.7% point advantage for Republicans with 50% of voters stating their preference for a Republican to 39.3% preferring a Democratic candidate.  Democrats split 76.8% Democratic to 17% for a Republican candidate.  83.8% of Republicans picked their Party’s brand to just 5.7% who preferred a Democrat.  Unaffiliated voters heavily favored a Republican candidate 51.8% to 31.3% who stated a preference for a Democratic candidate.

Over half the voters, 57%, think the state is headed in the wrong direction while only 28% believe it is headed in the right direction.  15% are not sure.  38% of voters say the economy will improve this year, 24.0% say it will get worse, and 28.7% say it will stay about the same.

For a complete set of the survey crosstabs and topline summary, please the links at the top of this page.

About the Strategic Insights Survey

The Strategic Insights Survey is a survey of 300 North Carolina voters living in the 35th NC House District with a margin of error of +/- 5.77%.  The survey is the project of Strategic Partners Solutions and is conducted by Paul Shumaker and Dee Stewart, two well-known Republican consultants to numerous state and federal candidates. This survey was conducted on September 26, 2012 through an automated phone system.  Phone surveys are a snapshot of voters’ opinions and are subject to other factors that may influence the margin of error not present in personal interviews surveys.  However, they are an effective measure of public opinion and provide valuable insight into the opinions of all voters.

The Strategic Insights Survey is designed to provide insight into the opinions of voters on federal, state and local issues facing North Carolina.  The surveys are conducted by an automated phone system using a random sample generated by a file of North Carolina voters.   The survey is a snapshot of voters’ opinion on the key issues of the day.  It is important to remember that public opinion is fluid and is subject to change over time.  Polls are not predictors of the future.  They are a reflection of opinion based upon the current set of information available in the public arena at a given point in time.